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RTYNEGATIVEBEARISH2833.00·ESPOSITIVEBULLISH7804.00·NQNEGATIVENEUTRAL30450.00Wednesday, October 14, 2026
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Institutional-grade pre-market briefings — dealer gamma regime, AMT opening type, key level map, Greek pressure, and a scored thesis for RTY, ES, NQ and SPX — published before the bell, graded after the close.

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Briefs12
Levels Scored19
Hit Rate74%
2026-09-24 · published 24 Sep 2026 UTCOPEN BRIEF →
RTY
NEGATIVE
“RUT opened 25 points under its 0DTE Gamma Neutral with dealers short gamma through the whole front of the curve and net charm negative; small caps are the most resilient of the three indices, so the lean is lower but conditional on losing the 2830 put wall (RTY 2848).”
BEARISHConf 45%OPEN AUCTION
TODAY · CROSS-ASSET

Three markets, one read.

We scan RTY (index + futures basis), ES and NQ every session. Each gets its own dealer-regime read, thesis, and level map.

RTY
NEGATIVE
RUT opened 25 points under its 0DTE Gamma Neutral with dealers short gamma through the whole front of the curve and net charm negative; small caps are the most resilient of the three indices, so the lean is lower but conditional on losing the 2830 put wall (RTY 2848).
BEARISHConf 45%OPEN AUCTION
ES
POSITIVE
Drift up into the call wall, pin, then an afternoon reversion. Spot SPX 7803 (ES 7851) sits in a two-way strip: dealers long gamma at 7800 (+27.3) and 7810 (+14.4), short at 7805 (-23.0), with the 0DTE Gamma Neutral 7795 underneath. The signed charm is an upward drift (0DTE -14.1) and the forecast charm band 7784-7890 pushes up through the morning, so the lean is to SPX 7825 (ES 7872): the largest dealer long gamma (3,197 contracts, +33.6), the open-interest 0DTE call wall and confluence 5 - and the ES weekly value-area high 7869.5. Expect a pin and cap there. From ~13:00 ET the charm field changes: an attractor forms at 7811-7814 (ES 7858-7861) with a divide at 7834-7839 (ES 7881-7886); below the divide charm reverts price to ~7812. Acceptance above ES ~7883 instead hands control to the upward pull toward SPX 7890-7903 (ES 7937-7950) through the 7830-7845 dealer short-gamma pocket. Downside is cushioned at 7800 and the morning charm divide 7784 (ES 7831); below it, 7775 then the all-expiry peak 7750 (ES 7797).
BULLISHConf 50%OPEN AUCTION
NQ
NEGATIVE
NQ gapped ~204 lower overnight (Monday close ~30877 to 30670) while ES is flat: the fragile index. Live NDX 30450 sits exactly on its 0DTE put wall and below the 0DTE Gamma Neutral 30637 (NQ 30857), in short gamma, with the front week short gamma on both NDX and the fund (the fund's own 740 put wall is its largest 0DTE node). The put wall is the opening support; the aggregate charm leans down. A partial gap fill needs NQ to reclaim 30770 (NDX 30550, confluence 6, weekly POC); short gamma then carries a full fill to the Gamma Neutral NQ 30857 / Monday close ~30877, most likely if ES drives into its call wall. Losing the put wall in short gamma extends to NDX 30300 (NQ 30520, confluence 6, OPEX put wall, weekly value-area low). No signed NDX book exists; the SPX signed rail is not transferred.
NEUTRALConf 40%OPEN AUCTION
THE LOOP

Scan. Brief. Score.

Every call is time-stamped and graded. No retroactive edits. No survivorship bias.

01 · SCAN
Multi-DTE dealer-flow scan.
Full options chain reads across 0/1/2/3/6/7 DTE. Gamma flip, walls, vanna and charm magnets, opening-type classification, IV regime and cross-asset divergence — ground-truthed against the native index, not an ETF proxy.
02 · BRIEF
One page. Pre-open. Signed.
Published before the bell with a dated thesis, confidence band, key discriminator (“watch X → confirms Y”), and a confluence-ranked level map. No moving goalposts.
03 · SCORE
Graded after the close.
Every level is marked HIT / HELD / MISSED / REJECTED / ABSORBED against the session tape. Running hit-rate visible on every archive card. Accuracy-of-record is the product.
ARCHIVE

Recent briefs.

Full Archive →
NQ
2026-10-13
NQ gapped ~204 lower overnight (Monday close ~30877 to 30670) while ES is flat: the fragile index. Live NDX 30450 sits exactly on its 0DTE put wall and below the 0DTE Gamma Neutral 30637 (NQ 30857), in short gamma, with the front week short gamma on both NDX and the fund (the fund's own 740 put wall is its largest 0DTE node). The put wall is the opening support; the aggregate charm leans down. A partial gap fill needs NQ to reclaim 30770 (NDX 30550, confluence 6, weekly POC); short gamma then carries a full fill to the Gamma Neutral NQ 30857 / Monday close ~30877, most likely if ES drives into its call wall. Losing the put wall in short gamma extends to NDX 30300 (NQ 30520, confluence 6, OPEX put wall, weekly value-area low). No signed NDX book exists; the SPX signed rail is not transferred.
NEUTRALNEGATIVEPending
ES
2026-10-13
Drift up into the call wall, pin, then an afternoon reversion. Spot SPX 7803 (ES 7851) sits in a two-way strip: dealers long gamma at 7800 (+27.3) and 7810 (+14.4), short at 7805 (-23.0), with the 0DTE Gamma Neutral 7795 underneath. The signed charm is an upward drift (0DTE -14.1) and the forecast charm band 7784-7890 pushes up through the morning, so the lean is to SPX 7825 (ES 7872): the largest dealer long gamma (3,197 contracts, +33.6), the open-interest 0DTE call wall and confluence 5 - and the ES weekly value-area high 7869.5. Expect a pin and cap there. From ~13:00 ET the charm field changes: an attractor forms at 7811-7814 (ES 7858-7861) with a divide at 7834-7839 (ES 7881-7886); below the divide charm reverts price to ~7812. Acceptance above ES ~7883 instead hands control to the upward pull toward SPX 7890-7903 (ES 7937-7950) through the 7830-7845 dealer short-gamma pocket. Downside is cushioned at 7800 and the morning charm divide 7784 (ES 7831); below it, 7775 then the all-expiry peak 7750 (ES 7797).
BULLISHPOSITIVEPending
NQ
2026-10-12
NDX 30848 (NQ 31075) sits just below its 0DTE Gamma Neutral 30863 (NQ 31090) in short gamma with short vanna and negative aggregate charm: the fragile index. Below 31090 the lean is down to the put wall 30800 (NQ 31027) then the 1DTE Gamma Neutral / confluence-5 support 30700-30713 (NQ 30927-30940); reclaiming 31090 opens 31000 (NQ 31227) and the 31175 call wall (NQ 31402). No signed NDX book exists; the SPX signed rail is not transferred.
BEARISHNEGATIVEPending
ES
2026-10-12
Dampened open, then a probe lower. The signed market-maker rail (live) puts SPX 7815 inside its own long-gamma zone 7790.5-7823 (ES 7838-7871): dealers long gamma at 7800/7815/7820/7840. The aggregate charm field is net negative and vanna is short, so the drift leans down into ES 7848-53 (SPX 7800-7805: 0DTE Gamma Neutral 7803, put wall 7800, dealer long gamma, fresh customer put buying) - a buy inside the pin. Acceptance below ES 7838 (SPX 7790) leaves the cushion; short vanna at 7800/7792 accelerates a flush through the 1DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7828) to the all-expiry long-gamma peak SPX 7750-7755 (ES 7798-7803), where the bid is best evidenced. Upside: through ES 7888 (SPX 7840) the signed rail shows dealers SHORT calls at 7850-7855, a squeeze pocket to ES ~7918 (SPX 7870). OPEX Friday is net short gamma, so breaks carry further than usual this week.
BEARISHPOSITIVEPending
NQ
2026-10-12
NDX 30848 (NQ 31075) sits just below its 0DTE Gamma Neutral 30863 (NQ 31090) in short gamma with short vanna and negative aggregate charm: the fragile index. Below 31090 the lean is down to the put wall 30800 (NQ 31027) then the 1DTE Gamma Neutral / confluence-5 support 30700-30713 (NQ 30927-30940); reclaiming 31090 opens 31000 (NQ 31227) and the 31175 call wall (NQ 31402). No signed NDX book exists; the SPX signed rail is not transferred.
BEARISHNEGATIVEPending
ES
2026-10-12
Dampened open, then a probe lower. The signed market-maker rail (live) puts SPX 7815 inside its own long-gamma zone 7790.5-7823 (ES 7838-7871): dealers long gamma at 7800/7815/7820/7840. The aggregate charm field is net negative and vanna is short, so the drift leans down into ES 7848-53 (SPX 7800-7805: 0DTE Gamma Neutral 7803, put wall 7800, dealer long gamma, fresh customer put buying) - a buy inside the pin. Acceptance below ES 7838 (SPX 7790) leaves the cushion; short vanna at 7800/7792 accelerates a flush through the 1DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7828) to the all-expiry long-gamma peak SPX 7750-7755 (ES 7798-7803), where the bid is best evidenced. Upside: through ES 7888 (SPX 7840) the signed rail shows dealers SHORT calls at 7850-7855, a squeeze pocket to ES ~7918 (SPX 7870). OPEX Friday is net short gamma, so breaks carry further than usual this week.
BEARISHPOSITIVEPending
NQ
2026-09-25
NDX 30635 (NQ 30915) sits directly under a two-rail call wall (native 30670 plus the fund's 745/746 strikes, NQ 30920-30960) and 250-300 points above the gamma-neutral band: positive gamma on a thin native book, capped overhead, with charm pointing down on both rails - a range with a downward lean into the close unless NQ accepts above 30980. No signed NDX book exists; the ES signed skew (short gamma above spot) is the cross-asset risk to the cap.
NEUTRALPOSITIVEPending
ES
2026-09-25
Weighting the signed market-maker rail first: dealers are net short gamma (0DTE -$2.0B, all-expiry -$5.2B) but long at the current price (SPX 7730/7735, ES 7791/7796), so the open pins and then breaks. Above, a -$3.1B short-gamma pocket at SPX 7740-7755 (ES 7801-7816) accelerates a rally toward the +$786M node at ES 7831; below, -$1.26B at SPX 7720-7725 (ES 7781-7786) accelerates a drop into the +$2.1B long-put cushion at ES 7736. The upside pocket is larger and has no cushion until 7831, so the asymmetry leans up.
BULLISHNEGATIVEPending
NQ
2026-09-25
NDX 30635 (NQ 30915) sits directly under a two-rail call wall (native 30670 plus the fund's 745/746 strikes, NQ 30920-30960) with the overnight volume point of control on it, and 250-300 points above the gamma-neutral band: positive gamma on a thin native book, capped overhead, with charm pointing down on both rails - a range with a downward lean into the close unless NQ accepts above 30980.
NEUTRALPOSITIVEPending
ES
2026-09-25
SPX 7729 (ES 7790) opened the gap inside the lower edge of a dense 0DTE call block (7725-7755, ~27,000 calls) and 35 points above a Gamma Neutral shelf that four exact expiries and the fund agree on (SPX 7690-7708, ES 7751-7769): positive gamma, so expect rotation that sells rallies into ES 7806-7811 and buys dips toward 7769, with a mild downward charm drift into the close. The regime changes only below ES 7755.
NEUTRALPOSITIVEPending
RTY
2026-09-24
RUT opened 25 points under its 0DTE Gamma Neutral with dealers short gamma through the whole front of the curve and net charm negative; small caps are the most resilient of the three indices, so the lean is lower but conditional on losing the 2830 put wall (RTY 2848).
BEARISHNEGATIVEPending
NQ
2026-09-24
NDX (~30161) opened the gap below every NDX Gamma Neutral and below the thin 0DTE put wall 30200 (NQ 30493); native and fund charm both point downward and the fund book corroborates negative gamma, so the lean is lower toward the NDX 30000 vol trigger (NQ 30293) unless NQ reclaims 30493.
BEARISHNEGATIVEPending

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OpenGamma Intelligence · 2026Not investment advice · Dealer-flow research only