RTYPOSITIVE
RTY broke above-price call wall support (RTY 2914 / RUT 2910) and is at the 3DTE HVL (RTY 2909); thesis change gate MET (condition b: 0DTE call wall broken + 3DTE HVL at current price = material GEX shift); pre-market bullish thesis superseded; intraday bias BEARISH with moderate confidence; dominant vanna magnet at RTY 2913 (+14,481) is actively fighting to pin current price — bear needs 2909 on tape + VIX ≥17.50 to confirm next leg; target sequence: RTY 2899 → 2874; bull recovery requires reclaim of RTY 2914 with volume and VIX reversal.
Primary bear trade: Enter short RTY at 2909-2912 zone (at or slightly below 3DTE HVL) on 5-min close below 2909 + negative CVD + VIX ≥17.50. Target: RTY 2899 (0DTE HVL) first, then 2874 (0DTE put wall). Stop: RTY reclaim of 2914 on tape with VIX reversal. SPX equivalent entry: 5-min close below SPX 7,497 (1DTE -$413M zone break); target SPX 7,475 (dual 1DTE+2DTE floor, massive positive GEX — DO NOT hold short through this level); stop ES reclaim of 7,526. M2K context: 2912 to 2874 = 38 pts × $4 = $152/contract. Risk: dominant vanna magnet at RTY 2913 (+14,481) is mechanical headwind for the short until definitively broken.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 2904.75Level Reaction
Intraday tape · RTY · 2026-05-26Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionNominally positive (+$1.77M 0DTE) but functionally deteriorating. 0DTE call wall (RTY 2914) broken — that GEX is now overhead resistance not support. Near-price positive 0DTE support: RUT 2900 (+$220K) and RUT 2895 (+$169K). Below RTY 2899 (0DTE HVL), the gamma bid largely disappears. Thin near-expiry book offers minimal structural protection.
Long vanna (stabilizing). VHI 11,594 vs avg 11,480, RISING. BATTLEGROUND at current price: dominant magnet RTY 2913 (+14,481) pulls UP — mechanically fighting bear. Dominant anti-magnet RTY 2904 (-15,125) = strongest force in scan pushes DOWN if touched. Cluster of magnets RTY 2913-2919 (cumulative +29,796) vs anti-magnets RTY 2904-2910 (-21,656): magnets marginally stronger but VIX rising tips balance toward bears. Short thesis: if RTY pierces below 2907, anti-magnet cluster at 2904 accelerates downside.
Net charm -$4.42B. Path of least resistance: DOWNWARD. Below-spot charm ($15.03B) > above-spot charm ($9.47B). Delta decaying asymmetrically. Deep OTM put zones (RTY 2764-2794) have highest charm concentration — dealer unwind creates persistent downward drift into close. Upside charm at RTY 2934 (+$2.71B) is 22 points away — requires material recovery to engage.
Negative color (proxy from ES pre-market): gamma decays as time passes. Standard near-expiry 0DTE signature. Pinning force fades into close. 0DTE expiry today (2026-05-26) — this is expected behavior.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greeksNegative color: gamma decays as time passes. 0DTE expiry today — normal near-expiry signature. Pinning force fades into settlement.
Negative speed: gamma weakens on moves lower. Downside moves face declining gamma support — means dealer hedging becomes LESS dampening as price drops. Consistent with accelerating bear scenario below key levels.
Negative vomma: gamma exposure decreases as IV rises. VIX rising toward 17.50+ means dealer dampening capacity is decreasing — consistent with the accelerating bear scenario if VIX breaks higher.
Zomma 13.2: below LBF armed threshold of 15. LBF condition 1 not met. Do not construct LBF scenarios.
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureCross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence
CONFIRMING · COMPLETENative futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.
Native Levels Confirmed
4 matched levelsRTY 2907 (RUT 2902.9) — Vanna Anti-Magnet -1,585; below = increasing velocity is secondarily confirmed by IWM ratio level near 2907.78 and 3-stock zone 2900.98-2905.34.
RTY 2909 (RUT 2905) — 3DTE HVL — BEAR/BULL FENCE; KEY WATCH is secondarily confirmed by IWM ratio level near 2907.78 and 3-stock zone 2900.98-2905.34.
RTY 2910 (RUT 2905.8) — Vanna Anti-Magnet -3,946; pushes price away is secondarily confirmed by IWM ratio level near 2907.78 and 9-stock zone 2900.98-2912.44.
RTY 2929 (RUT 2925) — 1DTE Call Wall; secondary overhead is secondarily confirmed by IWM ratio level near 2928.18.
ETF Confirmation Levels
IWM ratio-convertedIWM ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 2979.19 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.
IWM ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 2836.36 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.
IWM ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 2836.36 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.
IWM ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 2836.36 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.
Component Confluence Zones
Provisional only3-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 2903.16. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
9-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 2907.22. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
12-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 2897.01. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
3-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 2896.82. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
Cautions
Quality-aware language- Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
- At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
- Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
- One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
- MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.
Overlay Diagnostics
Runtime 40s- LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
- ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
- COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
- COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedAccuracy Log
Outcomes · last 18 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | RTY | HVL@ 2796.00 | LONG_ABOVE | HIT | RTY opened 2777.00, printed a 30-minute close of 2791.90, then reclaimed and held above 2796. Session high reached 2809.30 and close finished 2807.60, confirming the upside pivot break. |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2782.00 | Fade at post-pin continuation target | MISSED | Price never reached 2782 — pinned tight at 2773 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2752.00 | Bear trigger — clean break = cascade | HELD | Session low was 2762 — never tested 2752 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2775.00 | OPEX PIN — consolidate at IWM 275 into 4PM close | HIT | Closed RTY 2773.5. OPEX pin held perfectly. |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2756.00 | First target on 2736 long | HIT | Target hit cleanly ~12:30 ET |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2764.00 | ATH amplifier gate — sustained break = acceleration | REJECTED | Tagged 2761.5 (ATH) but failed to sustain above 2764 flip |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2736.00 | Bull gate: 2736 IB accept = long trigger | HIT | Accepted 2736 on 15-min bar, ran to 2756 by noon |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | HVL@ 2679.00 | Gamma flip gate — hold = bull regime | HELD | Never tested — session stayed above 2705 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | VANNA MAGNET@ 2722.00 | Vol compression pulls to vanna magnet | HIT | RTY tagged 2722.5 within first 45 min of RTH |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2737.00 | Dominant call wall — fade at | REJECTED | Tested 2736.5, rejected twice; closed 2725 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2732.00 | Regime flip on reclaim | MISSED | Rejected twice then price broke lower — flip never reclaimed |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2710.00 | Absorption — put wall defends | ABSORBED | Intraday -$159K flipped to +$147K, held on two tests |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2725.00 | Fade at 2725 — vanna-sandwich lid | REJECTED | Rejected 2724.8 high, closed 2716 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2672.00 | Gamma peak gravity center — buy on test | PENDING | Price never reached — held above 2687 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | HVL@ 2687.00 | HVL support — buy on test | HELD | Held intraday; 2687 was low of the day before bounce |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2702.00 | Fade at dominant call wall | REJECTED | Rejected 2703.5 high multiple times; RTY consolidated 2685–2700 all day |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2564.50 | Bull thesis invalidation | HELD | Never traded near this level; tariff rally ensued |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | HVL@ 2641.50 | 5-min hold = long trigger to VPOC 2663 | PENDING | — |