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Edition · Wednesday, August 19, 2026·Archived · 11d ago · historical·19 Aug 2026 12:10 UTC

ESNEGATIVE

Spot7698.00Futures7716.00Basis+18.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
NEG_GAMMA_LIGHT_ONCE_TTE_CORRECTED
NetGEX -$1.8KRisk ELEVATED
Opening Type
OPEN TEST DRIVE
Conf 55%Day NORMALGAP DN
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger1 logged · 1 scored0% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-19

Once the 5.35-minute fixed-floor convention is corrected, today's 0DTE gamma is light rather than extreme and the real concentration is Friday's expiry, so with the volatility pin fully dead this should be a calmer session than the raw figures imply - but this index is the wrong vehicle for the upside because it remains below value with its two largest vanna magnets sitting 33 and 83 points below spot.

Express any long in the Nasdaq, not here: this index still sits below its value-area low with its two largest vanna magnets 33 and 83 points BELOW spot, so use ES 7721 as confirmation of the Nasdaq trade and 7708 as the level that kills it, and take nothing in the fifteen minutes either side of the open while the volatility settlement prints.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7698.00
ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7802.00
SPX7784.20
GAMMA FLIP21DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7802 / SPX 7784.2)
WATCH+1.12% · conf 2
ES7773.00
SPX7755.00
CALL WALL1DTE call wall + vanna magnets (ES 7773 / SPX 7755)
WATCH+0.74% · conf 3
ES7768.00
SPX7750.00
CALL WALL7DTE + OPEX call wall (ES 7768 / SPX 7750)
WATCH+0.68% · conf 3
ES7751.00
SPX7732.90
GAMMA FLIP7DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7751 / SPX 7732.9)
WATCH+0.45% · conf 2
ES7743.00
SPX7725.00
STRUCTURAL FLOORVega shelf + positive charm zone (ES 7743 / SPX 7725)
WATCH+0.35% · conf 2
ES7728.00
SPX7710.00
GAMMA FLIPETF-projected 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7728 / SPX 7710.0)
WATCH+0.16% · conf 3
ES7721.00
SPX7702.90
GAMMA FLIPNative 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7721 / SPX 7702.9)
WATCH+0.06% · conf 3
ES7718.00
SPX7700.00
CALL WALLTop vega shelf + 0DTE call wall (ES 7718 / SPX 7700)
WATCH+0.03% · conf 3
ES7713.00
SPX7695.00
CALL WALL0DTE call wall (ES 7713 / SPX 7695)
WATCH-0.04% · conf 3
ES7711.00
SPX7692.80
STRUCTURAL FLOORNative charm pressure centroid (ES 7711 / SPX 7692.8)
WATCH-0.07% · conf 2
ES7708.00
SPX7690.00
PUT WALL0DTE put wall + dominant node + STRONG cluster (ES 7708 / SPX 7690)
WATCH-0.10% · conf 3
SPOT
ES7716.00
SPX7698.00
Range 7639.00–7793.00
ES7698.00
SPX7680.00
PUT WALL7DTE put wall (ES 7698 / SPX 7680)
WATCH-0.23% · conf 2
ES7683.00
SPX7665.40
VANNA MAGNETLargest vanna magnet in the book (ES 7683 / SPX 7665.4)
WATCH-0.42% · conf 3
ES7668.00
SPX7650.00
PUT WALL1DTE put wall + dominant node + vanna magnet (ES 7668 / SPX 7650)
WATCH-0.62% · conf 3
ES7633.00
SPX7615.30
VANNA MAGNETETF vanna magnet stack (ES 7633 / SPX 7615.3)
WATCH-1.07% · conf 2

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · ES · 2026-08-19
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
VANNA
DOWN · 72

The two largest vanna readings in this family are magnets 33 and 83 index points BELOW spot, at +21,427 and +15,962 on the settlement-aware ETF rail. The antimagnets near spot are an order of magnitude weaker at -991 and -2,669. Vanna therefore pulls down here, which is the mirror image of the Nasdaq family where every meaningful antimagnet is below spot and every magnet above it. This divergence is the structural asymmetry of the day and the reason to express any long in the Nasdaq rather than here.

CHARM
DOWN · 70

The standing book is still negatively charmed on six rails: all four charm centroids read negativeCharm across 114 to 198 contributing strikes on both native and ETF rails, the drift card reads downward with an internal agreement of -0.99997, and the secondary source, force-refreshed to a genuinely live zero-second age, returns netCharm -486.8B with a downward path. HOWEVER the raw netCharmDaily aggregate rotated from -505,886 to +1,699,996 at approximately 08:00Z entirely within a single unchanged coverage regime, so that rotation is real marginal flow rather than an artefact. Read it as stock versus flow: the book is still negative, the marginal flow has turned. One rail against six, treated as a leading edge and not as confirmation.

GAMMA
DOWN · 58

0DTE net GEX is -$1.83B on a like-for-like basis, not the -$17.55B the store prints. The native 0DTE rows use a 5.35-minute fixed-floor time-to-expiry against an actual 8.24 hours remaining, and since gamma scales as one over the square root of time this inflates every 0DTE dollar figure by 9.62 times; a Black-Scholes reconstruction of the 7690 put wall at the floor predicts $11.67B against the store's $12.06B, a 3% match. Corrected, the OPEX bucket at -$9.50B is roughly five times today's, which inverts the raw term structure and argues for a calmer expiry session than the headline figures imply.

VOMMA
UP · 60

Net vomma positive with vommaRegime positiveHigh and vexConfidence high at 0.99. Vol-of-vol amplifies rather than absorbs an implied-volatility move, which matters on the morning the front volatility book settles to an opening print and no comparable pin exists for the rest of the week.

COLOR
UP · 40

Net color positive, so gamma is building rather than eroding into the session. Mildly supportive of a contained rather than expansive day.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
64804.170

speed
LATENT
17748.950

vomma
LATENT
41622098.000

zomma
LATENT
-0.157

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile0
Skew Pctile86
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 7718.00 via ETF ratio levels and component confluence zones.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
CALL WALL
72 conf
7718.00
Top vega shelf + 0DTE call wall (ES 7718 / SPX 7700)

Top vega shelf + 0DTE call wall (ES 7718 / SPX 7700) is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7721.53 and 11-stock zone 7709.95-7730.18.

ETF 1COMP 2
GAMMA FLIP
72 conf
7721.00
Native 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7721 / SPX 7702.9)

Native 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7721 / SPX 7702.9) is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7721.53 and 11-stock zone 7709.95-7730.18.

ETF 1COMP 2
GAMMA FLIP
72 conf
7728.00
ETF-projected 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7728 / SPX 7710.0)

ETF-projected 0DTE Gamma Neutral (ES 7728 / SPX 7710.0) is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7721.53 and 11-stock zone 7709.95-7730.18.

ETF 1COMP 2
PUT WALL
71 conf
7698.00
7DTE put wall (ES 7698 / SPX 7680)

7DTE put wall (ES 7698 / SPX 7680) is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7691.37 and 13-stock zone 7708.13-7724.73.

ETF 2COMP 2

ETF Confirmation Levels

SPY ratio-converted
SPY
0.85
7791.91
CALL_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 7791.91 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7641.10
PUT_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 7641.10 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7641.10
PUT_SUPPORT · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 7641.10 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7641.10
PUT_FLOOR · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 7641.10 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
CALL_WALL
0.41
7709.95 - 7730.18
center 7719.11 · 11 names · DTE 2

11-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7719.11. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.40
7708.13 - 7724.73
center 7716.76 · 13 names · DTE 0

13-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7716.76. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.39
7697.16 - 7719.33
center 7710.28 · 15 names · DTE 2

15-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 7710.28. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
7710.20 - 7730.68
center 7719.37 · 15 names · DTE 5

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7719.37. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 44s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 1 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20ESNEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00SHORT_BELOWABSORBEDOpened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day.
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.