NQNEGATIVE
This is the instrument for the upside because the two families now carry opposite vanna geometry: every meaningful antimagnet here sits below spot repelling price upward and every magnet above it attracting, while the S&P has its two largest magnets 33 and 83 points below spot, and this index has additionally reclaimed its value-area low with positive cumulative delta where the S&P has not.
This is the instrument for the upside: every meaningful vanna antimagnet sits below spot and every magnet above it, value-area low has been reclaimed and cumulative delta is positive, so hold 29508 through the settlement print and work 29596 then 29656, with 29491 as the level that kills it.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 29436.00Level Reaction
Intraday tape · NQ · 2026-08-19Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionThe cleanest bullish vanna configuration of the week and the structural asymmetry of the day. Every meaningful antimagnet on the structural-actual rail sits BELOW spot at -20,985 and -18,004, repelling price upward, while every magnet sits ABOVE it at +8,607, +7,390, +5,614 and +4,831, attracting it. This is the exact mirror of the S&P family, where the two largest readings are magnets 33 and 83 points below spot. The one dissent is the ETF 0DTE antimagnet at NQ 29559 reading -9,439, which is the first overhead friction. The fixed-one-minute rail reads plus or minus 51 against the structural-actual rail's plus or minus 20,985, so the structural rail carries this entirely.
Still negative on every rail here, unlike the S&P family where the raw aggregate rotated positive at approximately 08:00Z. All four charm centroids read negativeCharm across 110 to 338 contributing strikes on both native and ETF rails, and netCharmDaily is negative at -19,122. The drift card is STALE and publishes no read. This is the main evidence against the constructive case in this instrument, and the reason the long is a level-hold trade rather than a conviction trade.
0DTE net GEX is approximately -$142M on a like-for-like basis, not the -$1.37B the store prints, because the native 0DTE rows use a 5.35-minute fixed-floor time-to-expiry against an actual 8.24 hours remaining, inflating the figure 9.62 times. Corrected, the OPEX bucket at -$1.24B is roughly nine times today's, so the gamma concentration is Friday rather than now. Native front walls remain unusable at open interest 6, 12, 33 and 84, so the ETF-projected rail carries the wall structure throughout.
Net vomma positive with vommaRegime positiveHigh and vexConfidence high at 0.9775. Vol-of-vol amplifies rather than absorbs, relevant with spot sitting near a 217,989 vega node on volatility-expiry morning.
Net ultima negative on both families today, unlike Monday when the signs differed. Reported for completeness at 0.530 chain coverage; no position rests on it.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greeks—
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IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureCross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence
CONFIRMING · COMPLETENative futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.
Native Levels Confirmed
4 matched levels0DTE put wall (NQ 29469 / NDX 29378.4) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.
Largest vanna antimagnet (NQ 29478 / NDX 29387.5) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.
Vega node + 0DTE dominant node and put wall (NQ 29491 / NDX 29400) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.
Vanna antimagnet (NQ 29508 / NDX 29417.1) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.
ETF Confirmation Levels
QQQ ratio-convertedComponent Confluence Zones
Provisional only10-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29535.77. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
9-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29495.16. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29532.10. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
15-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29520.38. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.
Cautions
Quality-aware language- Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
- At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
- Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
- Parts of the overlay could not be converted onto the futures axis because a required live price was unavailable.
- One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
- MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.
Overlay Diagnostics
Runtime 48s- LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
- ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
- ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
- COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
- COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.
- MISSING_ETF_SPOT: cannot convert QQQ CALL_WALL
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedAccuracy Log
Outcomes · last 2 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | NQ | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 26831.00 | FADE_AT | HELD | High print was 26827.00, four points shy of the 26831 anchor. The ceiling held and the contract closed back below at 26774.50. |
| 2026-04-20 | NQ | PUT FLOOR@ 26689.00 | BUY_ON_TEST | ABSORBED | NQ broke below first support to 26593.75, but the move did not extend to 26499 structural support. The contract recovered and closed 26774.50, so the downside strike occurred but was ultimately absorbed. |
