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Edition · Friday, August 21, 2026·Archived · 9d ago · historical·21 Aug 2026 12:12 UTC

ESPOSITIVE

Spot7677.00Futures7695.00Basis+18.00SessionPREMARKET
Dealer Regime
POSITIVE_GAMMA_COMPRESSION_BOX_NEGATIVE_BOOK_STRANDED_BELOW
NetGEX -$21.8KRisk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 55%Day TRENDGAP UP
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger1 logged · 1 scored0% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-21

The gamma polarity boundary fell from 7655/7660 to 7645/7650 while spot rallied 36 points, so ES now sits 27 points inside positive gamma with the entire -$21.8B negative book stranded 30 to 90 points below. The ceiling is hard and got harder overnight: SPX 7700 carries +$2.026B on 8,404 OI, up from +$633M on 2,603, and is simultaneously the largest positive-gamma node, the largest negative DEX node and the second-largest vega shelf. Colour has flipped positive, gamma is up 42 percent and charm is up 12.8 percent - all compression - against a single genuine warning, which is short vanna deepening 21 percent with vomma amplifying.

ES 7695 sits in the upper third of a 50-point positive-gamma box running 7668 to 7718, with 23 points to a call wall whose open interest tripled overnight - buying here risks 27 to make 23 against dealers who are long gamma and selling strength. Fade 7716-7722 with a 7734 stop for 7703/7693/7678, or short a confirmed M5 close below 7668 on the retest for 7658/7648, taking profit INTO the 7656-7668 band rather than through it. Do not initiate between 7690 and 7703.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7677.00
ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7818.00
SPX7800.00
CALL WALLAug-28 7DTE call wall
WATCH+1.60% · conf 2
ES7768.00
SPX7750.00
CALL WALL0DTE upper positive-gamma node
WATCH+0.95% · conf 3
ES7745.59
SPX7727.59
DOMINANT ANCHORConstituent-aggregate 7DTE charm centroid
WATCH+0.66% · conf 1
ES7738.00
SPX7720.00
CALL WALL0DTE positive node at value-area low
WATCH+0.56% · conf 3
ES7718.00
SPX7700.00
CALL WALLTHE CEILING - 0DTE call wall, tripled overnight
WATCH+0.30% · conf 6
ES7708.00
SPX7690.00
DOMINANT ANCHOR0DTE positive node
WATCH+0.17% · conf 1
ES7703.00
SPX7685.00
DOMINANT ANCHORSecond-largest negative DEX node
WATCH+0.10% · conf 2
ES7698.00
SPX7680.00
DOMINANT ANCHOR0DTE positive node - true ATM region
WATCH+0.04% · conf 1
ES7693.00
SPX7675.00
DOMINANT ANCHOR0DTE positive node
WATCH-0.03% · conf 1
ES7678.00
SPX7660.00
CALL WALL0DTE positive node / AM-book call wall
WATCH-0.22% · conf 3
SPOT
ES7695.00
SPX7677.00
Range 7620.10–7769.90
ES7675.38
SPX7657.38
GAMMA NEUTRALSPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral
WATCH-0.25% · conf 4
ES7668.00
SPX7650.00
GAMMA FLIPGAMMA POLARITY BOUNDARY - first positive strike
WATCH-0.35% · conf 5
ES7658.00
SPX7640.00
PUT WALLDominant 0DTE node and OPEX put wall
WATCH-0.48% · conf 5
ES7648.00
SPX7630.00
PUT WALL0DTE node / Aug-24 3DTE put wall
WATCH-0.61% · conf 2
ES7643.00
SPX7625.00
PUT WALL0DTE node / vega shelf - downside extension
WATCH-0.68% · conf 2

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · ES · 2026-08-21
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
GAMMA
UP · 80

Aggregate 0DTE net GEX -$21.78B, but the sign is not uniform and the boundary has MOVED: every strike 7585-7645 is negative and every strike 7650-7750 is positive, so the polarity line fell from 7655/7660 at 08:21Z to 7645/7650 now. Spot at 7677 is 27 points inside positive gamma, versus four points this morning - dealers damp rather than amplify. Call gamma grew 72 percent (+$8.04B to +$13.80B), almost all at 7700, which is why the put share fell from 77.0 to 72.1. netGamma itself is +826.9, up 42.4 percent across 255 polls. Aggregate dollar delta is -25,213 and flat, with the two largest negative DEX nodes (7700 at -4,061 and 7685 at -3,405) straddling spot immediately overhead.

COLOR
UP · 76

netColorDaily has FLIPPED SIGN, -9,781 to +43,421 across 255 polls. Gamma is now accumulating rather than bleeding, which is what tightens a pin. This is a regime change rather than oscillation - the path is monotone in direction and terminal - and combined with netGamma +42.4 percent it is the strongest mechanical argument for compression.

CHARM
UP · 72

netCharmDaily +3,900,358, up 12.8 percent across the premarket and accelerating from the +6.6 percent recorded at 08:21Z, against netTheta of -6,206,792. The charmDrift card has also reversed sign since yesterday: projectedDeltaToClose is +$2.33B and labeled upward, versus -$147.8M downward on 08-20. That card is state DEGRADED and attributes part of the swing to 0DTE settlement revaluation, so it is directional colour only and anchors nothing.

VANNA
DOWN · 74

THE ONE BEARISH TREND. netVanna -36,443 to -44,152, a 21.2 percent DEEPENING - and a reversal, because it had first covered to -31,147 by 08:21Z before going the other way past its own starting point. Dealers are more short vanna than at any time today. With netVomma positiveHigh and amplifying, a vol expansion would be self-reinforcing AND would force dealer selling. Corroborated independently by the AM-settled book's 0DTE VEX of -30.37K against the weekly book's +129.59K. No ES vanna LEVELS exist - all 16 vexLevels rows carry vhi 0 and vannaNeutral is refused with eligibilityCoverageBelowMinimum, third scan running.

ULTIMA
NEUTRAL · 15

netUltima -51,948,416. EXCLUDED from every trend claim: across 255 premarket polls its path runs from -$645.5M to +$778.0M with repeated sign flips. That is numerical noise on a fourth-order aggregate, not a signal, and it is reported as such rather than dropped.

VOMMA
UP · 58

netVomma +50,237,713, up 6.9 percent. vexConfidence tier high at 0.985 with bandWidth 30 and vommaRegime positiveHigh - vol convexity is amplifying, so an IV expansion would be self-reinforcing. Read together with the deepening short vanna above, this is the tail risk of the day rather than a footnote. netVeta is +11.45B, up 74.0 percent, with netTheta more than doubling to -6,206,792 over the same window: vega decay is accelerating hard into PM settlement, so the pin that is tightening now will loosen through the afternoon.

ZOMMA
UP · 32

zommaAtGn0 -0.0100 at SPX strike 7655, halved from -0.0201 this morning. SINGLE-STRIKE level property, not an aggregate, and not comparable to any net above. Negative zomma at the gamma neutral means gamma there falls as vol rises, so the pin loosens on a vol expansion - but at half the morning's magnitude the pin is now MORE robust to an IV move.

SPEED
NEUTRAL · 10

speedAtGn0 is 0.0 at SPX strike 7655. COVERAGE ARTIFACT, not a reading - the 2026-08-12 audit established that speed is non-zero on only about 1 percent of contracts, so a zero here means the value was not returned at that strike. No third-order rail is available on either board and none is inferred.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
43421.100

speed
LATENT
0.000

vomma
LATENT
50237712.570

zomma
LATENT
-0.010

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile15
Skew Pctile72
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 7718.00 via ETF ratio levels and component confluence zones.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
CALL WALL
72 conf
7718.00
THE CEILING - 0DTE call wall, tripled overnight

THE CEILING - 0DTE call wall, tripled overnight is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7719.22 and 11-stock zone 7688.87-7708.75.

ETF 3COMP 2
CALL WALL
38 conf
7818.00
Aug-28 7DTE call wall

Aug-28 7DTE call wall is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7820.12.

ETF 2
DOMINANT ANCHOR
23 conf
7745.59
Constituent-aggregate 7DTE charm centroid

Constituent-aggregate 7DTE charm centroid is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7749.49.

ETF 2
PUT WALL
21 conf
7643.00
0DTE node / vega shelf - downside extension

0DTE node / vega shelf - downside extension is secondarily confirmed by 3-stock zone 7644.05-7655.59.

COMP 1

ETF Confirmation Levels

SPY ratio-converted
SPY
0.85
7820.12
CALL_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 7820.12 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
5247.05
PUT_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 5247.05 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
5247.05
PUT_SUPPORT · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 5247.05 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
5247.05
PUT_FLOOR · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 5247.05 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
PUT_SUPPORT
0.47
7644.05 - 7655.59
center 7649.82 · 3 names · DTE 7

3-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 7649.82. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.41
7688.87 - 7708.75
center 7698.50 · 11 names · DTE 0

11-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7698.50. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.39
7678.85 - 7699.95
center 7690.87 · 15 names · DTE 0

15-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 7690.87. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
7690.50 - 7706.50
center 7697.63 · 15 names · DTE 3

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7697.63. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 46s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 1 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20ESNEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00SHORT_BELOWABSORBEDOpened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day.
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.