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Edition · Friday, August 21, 2026·Archived · 9d ago · historical·21 Aug 2026 12:13 UTC

NQPOSITIVE

Spot29419.00Futures29504.00Basis+85.00SessionPREMARKET
Dealer Regime
GAMMA_FLIPPED_POSITIVE_SPOT_PINNED_ON_GAMMA_NEUTRAL
NetGEX $162Risk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 52%Day TRENDGAP UP
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger2 logged · 2 scored50% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-21

NDX 0DTE gamma flipped positive and its largest node is now 29460 - the call wall at 0, 7 and 21 DTE - while spot sits within one point of the 0DTE gamma neutral on two independent computations, with a third consensus line 10 points below. netVanna flipped positive too, so dealers are now long vanna here and short it on ES. The ETF vanna field inverted with it: the strongest antimagnet is now 29464, landing 1.6 points from chart value-area low, with magnets at 29587 and 29669 above. Price is balanced on a point with the pull upward - but the rail that says so reversed its strongest node in 3.5 hours and the native rail puts its magnets on the other side.

NQ is sitting within one point of its 0DTE gamma neutral (29503 store, 29504 production, live 29504) with the strongest vanna antimagnet on the board 40 points below at 29464 - 1.6 points from chart value-area low - and two vanna magnets above at 29587 and 29669. Buy a pullback into 29470-29505 with a 29440 stop for 29545, 29587 and 29669, at HALF size because the ETF vanna rail inverted its strongest node inside 3.5 hours and the native rail disagrees on which side of spot the pull is. Do not initiate between 29505 and 29545.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 29419.00
NQ
NDX
Level
Action · Distance
NQ29953.91
NDX29868.91
DOMINANT ANCHORConstituent-aggregate 7DTE charm centroid
WATCH+1.52% · conf 1
NQ29685.00
NDX29600.00
VANNA MAGNETStructural vanna magnet / 3DTE call wall
WATCH+0.61% · conf 3
NQ29669.34
NDX29584.34
VANNA MAGNETVanna magnet - upper
WATCH+0.56% · conf 2
NQ29587.17
NDX29502.17
VANNA MAGNETSTRONGEST vanna magnet on the board
WATCH+0.28% · conf 3
NQ29553.00
NDX29468.00
CALL WALLETF-projected 0DTE call wall
WATCH+0.17% · conf 2
NQ29545.00
NDX29460.00
CALL WALLNative call wall at 0, 7 AND 21 DTE
WATCH+0.14% · conf 5
NQ29515.96
NDX29430.96
DOMINANT ANCHORNDX charm pressure centroid
WATCH+0.04% · conf 2
NQ29503.00
NDX29418.00
GAMMA NEUTRALNDX 0DTE Gamma Neutral - SPOT IS ON IT
WATCH-0.00% · conf 4
NQ29485.00
NDX29400.00
VANNA MAGNET0DTE node / structural vanna magnet
WATCH-0.06% · conf 2
NQ29463.90
NDX29378.90
VANNA ANTIMAGNETSTRONGEST vanna antimagnet on the board
WATCH-0.14% · conf 3
NQ29445.00
NDX29360.00
PUT WALLLargest negative 0DTE node
WATCH-0.20% · conf 1
SPOT
NQ29504.00
NDX29419.00
Range 29011.50–29996.50
NQ29371.38
NDX29286.38
VANNA MAGNETStrongest native vanna magnet
WATCH-0.45% · conf 2
NQ29342.09
NDX29257.09
VANNA MAGNETVanna magnet / QQQ charm centroid
WATCH-0.55% · conf 2
NQ29285.00
NDX29200.00
GAMMA NEUTRALMODERATE cluster / NDX 21DTE Gamma Neutral
WATCH-0.74% · conf 3
NQ29185.00
NDX29100.00
PUT WALLThe only STRONG cluster on either board
WATCH-1.08% · conf 5

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · NQ · 2026-08-21
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
GAMMA
UP · 70

NDX 0DTE net GEX has FLIPPED POSITIVE, -$1.63B to +$162.45M, and 3DTE has flipped too. The dominant node is no longer the put wall: it is 29460 at +$161M on 253 OI, which is simultaneously the call wall at 0, 7 and 21 DTE. The 29100 strike that was 69 percent of the entire book this morning no longer appears in the top twelve, its gamma having collapsed as spot travelled 319 points away. Aggregate dollar delta is now small and two-sided at -1,101, with the -475 concentration at 29100 entirely decayed away. Coverage improved 0.51 to 0.62 but remains the weakest root in the scan.

VANNA
UP · 72

netVanna has FLIPPED POSITIVE, -450.2 to +275.1 - dealers are now net LONG vanna on NDX, which is stabilizing, and the opposite of the ES book. The level map inverted with it: the ETF rail's 29502 node went from a -27,495 antimagnet to a +29,634 magnet, 29584 became a second magnet at +27,661, and the strongest object is now the antimagnet at 29379 (vhi -76,061) which lands 1.6 points from chart value-area low. Vanna now repels NQ from 29464 and pulls it toward 29587 and 29669. CAVEAT: this rail inverted its strongest node in 3.5 hours, and the native rail places its magnets on the opposite side of spot.

CHARM
UP · 48

netCharmDaily +12,313 against netTheta -287,730. The native and session charm centroids agree within 1 point at index 29430.96 and 29431.82, sitting 12 points above spot and within 30 of the call wall - charm and gamma pointing at the same shelf. NO TREND IS AVAILABLE: the harvest is step-frozen, with 14 consecutive rows identical to four decimal places within the current coverage regime.

COLOR
DOWN · 38

netColorDaily -162.1, gamma eroding - and note this is the OPPOSITE of the ES book, where colour has flipped positive. Single observation from a step-frozen harvest; no build or erode trend can be claimed.

VOMMA
UP · 54

netVomma +8,979,124. vexConfidence tier high at 0.9775 with bandWidth 45 and vommaRegime positiveHigh - vol convexity amplifying. netVeta is +871.6M, concentrated at 29100 which still carries 7.8x the vega of any other strike despite its gamma having collapsed.

ULTIMA
NEUTRAL · 12

netUltima -19,358,608. Reported for completeness and excluded from any trend claim - the harvest is step-frozen so this is a single observation repeated across 14 polls, and the equivalent ES series sign-flips between -$645.5M and +$778.0M across its window.

ZOMMA
DOWN · 26

zommaAtGn0 -0.0119 at index strike 29210. SINGLE-STRIKE level property, not an aggregate, and not comparable to any net above. The anchor itself is a spot fallback (GREEKS_GN0_ANCHOR_FALLBACK_SPOT), so this describes the spot region rather than a true gamma-neutral strike - unlike the ES reading, which sits on a confirmed crossing.

SPEED
NEUTRAL · 10

speedAtGn0 is 0.0. COVERAGE ARTIFACT, not a reading - speed is non-zero on about 1 percent of contracts per the 2026-08-12 audit - and compounded here by the anchor being a spot fallback. No third-order rail is available.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
-162.120

speed
LATENT
0.000

vomma
LATENT
8979123.530

zomma
LATENT
-0.012

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile15
Skew Pctile77
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 29669.34 via ETF ratio levels.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
VANNA MAGNET
38 conf
29669.34
Vanna magnet - upper

Vanna magnet - upper is secondarily confirmed by QQQ ratio level near 29672.91.

ETF 3
VANNA MAGNET
38 conf
29685.00
Structural vanna magnet / 3DTE call wall

Structural vanna magnet / 3DTE call wall is secondarily confirmed by QQQ ratio level near 29672.91.

ETF 3
GAMMA NEUTRAL
21 conf
29285.00
MODERATE cluster / NDX 21DTE Gamma Neutral

MODERATE cluster / NDX 21DTE Gamma Neutral is secondarily confirmed by 3-stock zone 29308.65-29352.91.

COMP 1
VANNA MAGNET
21 conf
29342.09
Vanna magnet / QQQ charm centroid

Vanna magnet / QQQ charm centroid is secondarily confirmed by 3-stock zone 29308.65-29352.91.

COMP 2

ETF Confirmation Levels

QQQ ratio-converted
QQQ
0.85
29050.40
CALL_WALL · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 29050.40 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
29050.40
PUT_WALL · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 29050.40 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
29050.40
PUT_SUPPORT · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 29050.40 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
29050.40
PUT_FLOOR · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 29050.40 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
PUT_SUPPORT
0.47
29308.65 - 29352.91
center 29330.78 · 3 names · DTE 7

3-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29330.78. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.42
29432.76 - 29477.02
center 29454.89 · 3 names · DTE 5

3-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29454.89. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.40
29481.16 - 29548.49
center 29515.51 · 11 names · DTE 0

11-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29515.51. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.40
29464.83 - 29522.98
center 29493.82 · 9 names · DTE 0

9-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29493.82. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 52s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 2 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20NQDOMINANT ANCHOR@ 26831.00FADE_ATHELDHigh print was 26827.00, four points shy of the 26831 anchor. The ceiling held and the contract closed back below at 26774.50.
2026-04-20NQPUT FLOOR@ 26689.00BUY_ON_TESTABSORBEDNQ broke below first support to 26593.75, but the move did not extend to 26499 structural support. The contract recovered and closed 26774.50, so the downside strike occurred but was ultimately absorbed.
Total Logged2
Scored2
Hit Rate50%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.