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Edition · Friday, August 28, 2026·Archived · 2d ago · historical·28 Aug 2026 11:56 UTC

ESPOSITIVE

Spot7727.00Futures7739.00Basis+12.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
POSITIVE_GAMMA_SPOT_ABOVE_RISING_GAMMA_NEUTRAL_SINGLE_STRIKE_PUT_CLIFF_BELOW
NetGEX $8.1KRisk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 40%Day NORMAL
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger1 logged · 1 scored0% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-28

The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.

Long into the ramp is the trade the structure supports. Enter on a hold above 7750, the 0DTE and 3DTE call wall, or on a pullback into 7730 that holds; target 7762 then 7775, and take size into 7770-7775 where the dominant gamma node at +$1,500M, the vanna magnet at +24,764 and the cumulative crossing all coincide - that is a ceiling, not a waypoint, and 1 sigma up is only 7777.8. Invalidation is 7715.58, which is not a soft stop but the Gamma Neutral, the ETF put wall and the largest 0DTE vanna antimagnet at one price. Short only on a sustained loss of that line, targeting 7700 and TAKING it - the put wall, the 0.998-percentile cluster and the largest vega shelf all sit there and first contact should hold. Do not pre-position through 7700. No new risk inside 7716-7733 or across the 13:55-14:35 UTC speech window.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7727.00
ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7812.00
SPX7800.00
CALL WALLUpper gamma node + 1DTE vanna magnet
WATCH+0.94% · conf 2
ES7792.00
SPX7780.00
CALL WALL0DTE gamma node
WATCH+0.68% · conf 1
ES7789.80
SPX7777.80
VOL TRIGGERUpper 1 sigma
WATCH+0.66% · conf 1
ES7787.00
SPX7775.00
CALL WALL0DTE gamma node
WATCH+0.62% · conf 2
ES7782.00
SPX7770.00
DOMINANT ANCHORDominant 0DTE gamma node - the ceiling
WATCH+0.56% · conf 3
ES7779.77
SPX7767.77
VANNA MAGNETDominant vanna magnet
WATCH+0.53% · conf 3
ES7774.75
SPX7762.75
DOMINANT ANCHORVolume-profile point of control
WATCH+0.46% · conf 1
ES7772.00
SPX7760.00
CALL WALL0DTE gamma node
WATCH+0.43% · conf 2
ES7762.00
SPX7750.00
CALL WALL0DTE and 3DTE call wall
WATCH+0.30% · conf 3
ES7749.66
SPX7737.66
CALL WALLETF-rail 0DTE call wall
WATCH+0.14% · conf 3
ES7742.00
SPX7730.00
DOMINANT ANCHORSpot gamma node
WATCH+0.04% · conf 3
ES7729.66
SPX7717.66
VANNA ANTIMAGNETVanna antimagnet and ETF put wall
WATCH-0.12% · conf 3
ES7727.58
SPX7715.58
GAMMA NEUTRAL0DTE Gamma Neutral - the hinge
WATCH-0.15% · conf 3
SPOT
ES7739.00
SPX7727.00
Range 7683.60–7777.80
ES7712.00
SPX7700.00
PUT WALLPut wall and floor
WATCH-0.35% · conf 3
ES7679.54
SPX7667.54
VANNA MAGNETLower vanna magnet
WATCH-0.77% · conf 2

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · ES · 2026-08-28
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
GAMMA
COMPRESSION · 84

Strongly POSITIVE and directly MEASURED on a live chain - the native index root is the one root that quotes outside regular hours, and today it is genuinely live with quotes stamped 07:23 ET. An independent rebuild returns +$8.078B against the store's own profile at +$8.080B, agreement to 0.02 percent, and the cumulative-strike crossing agrees with the published brief to about one point. There is no sign question on this family today. The structural asymmetry is the whole story: the entire put wing is concentrated at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle. Downside is a cliff at one level; upside is a ramp. Spot sits 15 points above the Gamma Neutral and the Gamma Neutral itself migrated UP 10 points across 64 polls this morning. Dollar-delta folded in here: net DEX +34,054 contracts-delta, stable across the morning, but 61 percent of the gross book cancels so it is not read directionally.

VANNA
UP · 76

The cleanest read of the day, and it is strike-located rather than aggregate - the net aggregate is -1,656, essentially zero, and carries no information. The map does. The 0DTE antimagnet at 7717.66 reads -23,142 and the 0DTE magnet at 7767.77 reads +24,764: nearly equal and opposite, 50 index points apart, with spot sitting between them. Repulsion below, attraction above. That is a mechanical description of a market that should drift up and refuse to sit still where it is. The antimagnet coincides exactly with the ETF put wall and sits one point above the Gamma Neutral, so vanna, gamma and the wall rail all mark the same hinge. Note the native 0DTE vanna rows are on the fixed1m rail and are DEMOTED - a fixed-TTE proximity tracker, not a structural magnet map; only the actualRemaining and structuralActual rails are read.

CHARM
UP · 71

Positive AND building - the strongest directional tailwind in the report. Across 64 polls from 10:29 to 11:32 UTC net charm ran +1,890,041 to +1,847,331 to +2,433,005, a 28.7 percent build. Positive charm means call delta accruing as time passes, which is a structural bid into the close rather than a one-off. The contrast with the Nasdaq is the day's cleanest cross-asset discriminator: NDX charm flipped NEGATIVE early and stayed there. No path-of-least-resistance language is drawn from the pressure centroid, however - the native and ETF centroid signs split on BOTH index pairs, which points to a rail convention difference rather than a market disagreement, and CEX_PRESSURE_CENTROID_NOT_PRICE_TARGET applies in any case since the centroid at 7727.46 is essentially spot and its tteMode is fixedFloor.

VOMMA
UP · 58

Net vomma strongly positive - the book lengthens volatility as volatility rises, which matters far more than usual with VIX at the 3rd percentile of 66 sessions. Rose from 35.8M to 58.6M across the morning. Veta is folded in here because the schema has no VETA row: net veta +1.227e10, positive, meaning vega decays through the session, so the book's volatility sensitivity is a morning phenomenon that fades into the afternoon. Net ultima +49,776,809 and net rho +101,398 are also folded here; rho is a live input with rates in play, not decoration.

COLOR
UP · 44

Net color rose strongly across the morning, +16,454 to +81,672 to +94,541 over 64 polls. Positive and building color means the gamma cushion is getting DEEPER through the session rather than decaying - the positive-gamma regime is strengthening, not running off. This is a supporting reason to expect impulses to stay damped until the Gamma Neutral is lost.

SPEED
NEUTRAL · 5

Speed at the GN0 strike 7715 reads exactly 0. This is the standing coverage caveat firing rather than a measurement - the vendor returns non-zero speed on only about 1 percent of contracts. It is a SINGLE-STRIKE level property at the Gamma Neutral and is never comparable to a net aggregate. Recorded as absent rather than estimated.

ZOMMA
NEUTRAL · 10

Zomma at the GN0 strike 7715, a single-strike level property rather than an aggregate. Negligible magnitude and not read directionally.

ULTIMA
UP · 30

Net ultima positive at +49.8M. Worth recording only because the Nasdaq reads the opposite sign at -120.9M - the two indices have opposite vol-of-vol convexity today, which is consistent with the rest of the cross-asset picture in which the S&P has the cleaner structure.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
95211.690

Net color daily +95,212 and RISING hard across the morning, from +16,454 through +81,672. Positive and building color means the gamma cushion is getting deeper through the session rather than decaying - the positive-gamma regime is strengthening, which is a supporting reason to expect impulses to stay damped until the Gamma Neutral is lost

speed
LATENT
0.000

Speed at the GN0 strike 7715 reads exactly 0 - the standing coverage caveat firing rather than a measurement, since the vendor returns non-zero speed on only about 1 percent of contracts. A single-strike level property, never comparable to a net aggregate. Recorded as absent rather than estimated

vomma
LATENT
59608939.350

Net vomma +59.6M, rising from 35.8M this morning - the book lengthens volatility as volatility rises, which matters more than usual with the volatility index at the 3rd percentile and no premium cushioning an event

zomma
LATENT
-0.069

Zomma at the GN0 strike 7715, a single-strike level property of negligible magnitude rather than an aggregate. Not read directionally

provenance
LATENT
NaN

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile3
Skew Pctile35
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily Move±0.61% / ±0.61%
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 7727.58 via ETF ratio levels and component confluence zones.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
GAMMA NEUTRAL
75 conf
7727.58
0DTE Gamma Neutral - the hinge

0DTE Gamma Neutral - the hinge is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7727.96 and 3-stock zone 7708.60-7720.20.

ETF 3COMP 2
VANNA ANTIMAGNET
75 conf
7729.66
Vanna antimagnet and ETF put wall

Vanna antimagnet and ETF put wall is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7727.96 and 3-stock zone 7708.60-7720.20.

ETF 3COMP 2
VANNA MAGNET
56 conf
7679.54
Lower vanna magnet

Lower vanna magnet is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7677.78 and 1-stock zone 7672.53-7684.13.

ETF 3COMP 2
CALL WALL
23 conf
7762.00
0DTE and 3DTE call wall

0DTE and 3DTE call wall is secondarily confirmed by SPY ratio level near 7758.07.

ETF 2

ETF Confirmation Levels

SPY ratio-converted
SPY
0.85
7727.96
CALL_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 7727.96 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7677.78
PUT_WALL · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 7677.78 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7677.78
PUT_SUPPORT · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 7677.78 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

SPY
0.85
7677.78
PUT_FLOOR · DTE 0

SPY ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 7677.78 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
PUT_SUPPORT
0.47
7708.60 - 7720.20
center 7714.40 · 3 names · DTE 0

3-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 7714.40. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
7732.42 - 7750.15
center 7741.64 · 15 names · DTE 0

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7741.64. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
7732.42 - 7747.86
center 7740.07 · 15 names · DTE 3

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7740.07. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
7731.93 - 7749.75
center 7739.14 · 15 names · DTE 5

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 7739.14. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 44s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 1 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20ESNEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00SHORT_BELOWABSORBEDOpened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day.
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.