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Edition · Friday, August 28, 2026·Archived · 2d ago · historical·28 Aug 2026 11:57 UTC

NQPOSITIVE

Spot29558.00Futures29618.00Basis+60.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
NET_POSITIVE_GAMMA_BUT_SPOT_BELOW_ETF_RAIL_FLIP_SHALLOW_NEGATIVE_POCKET_VANNA_REPULSION_AT_SPOT
NetGEX $3.7KRisk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 35%Day NORMAL
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger2 logged · 2 scored50% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-28

The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.

Use the Nasdaq as the confirmation instrument today rather than the primary vehicle - charm is against it, it has no volume-profile objective in range, and its two rails disagree on the regime. If trading it directly, long only above 29,600 index, the deepest structure in the book at open interest 15,339 with a STRONG cluster and a five-member multi-tenor cluster on the same price, targeting 29,662 then 29,716, with a stop at 29,538 index. The stop must be tighter than the S&P equivalent because price is below its flip on the arbiter rail and therefore undamped in both directions. The character of the trade changes at 29,643: above that the flip is cleared, gamma turns damping and the grind becomes low-risk; below it every move runs. Short only on a clean loss of 29,500, which is a contested node rather than support and should not be leaned on from either side. No new risk inside 29,538-29,600 or across the 13:55-14:35 UTC speech window.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 29558.00
NQ
NDX
Level
Action · Distance
NQ29885.00
NDX29825.00
CALL WALLUpper gamma node
WATCH+0.90% · conf 1
NQ29868.00
NDX29808.00
VANNA MAGNETUpper vanna magnet and 1 sigma
WATCH+0.84% · conf 2
NQ29835.30
NDX29775.30
VANNA MAGNETDominant vanna magnet of the day
WATCH+0.73% · conf 3
NQ29820.00
NDX29760.00
CALL WALLNative 0DTE call wall
WATCH+0.68% · conf 3
NQ29805.60
NDX29745.60
VANNA MAGNETVanna magnet
WATCH+0.63% · conf 2
NQ29775.80
NDX29715.80
VANNA MAGNETVanna magnet
WATCH+0.53% · conf 2
NQ29746.10
NDX29686.10
VANNA MAGNETLowest vanna magnet - two rails
WATCH+0.43% · conf 3
NQ29722.00
NDX29662.00
CALL WALLETF 722 gamma node
WATCH+0.35% · conf 2
NQ29703.00
NDX29643.00
GAMMA FLIPFlip zone and 21DTE Gamma Neutral
WATCH+0.29% · conf 3
NQ29660.00
NDX29600.00
CALL WALLETF call wall and densest cluster
WATCH+0.14% · conf 3
NQ29640.00
NDX29580.00
DOMINANT ANCHORLargest ETF 0DTE node
WATCH+0.07% · conf 3
NQ29627.30
NDX29567.30
VANNA ANTIMAGNETDominant vanna antimagnet - spot is on it
WATCH+0.03% · conf 3
NQ29577.00
NDX29517.00
PUT WALLETF 0DTE put wall
WATCH-0.14% · conf 3
NQ29560.00
NDX29500.00
DOMINANT ANCHORContested node - NOT clean support
WATCH-0.20% · conf 2
SPOT
NQ29618.00
NDX29558.00
Range 29308.00–29808.00
NQ29416.93
NDX29356.93
GAMMA NEUTRAL0DTE Gamma Neutral
WATCH-0.68% · conf 3

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · NQ · 2026-08-28
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
GAMMA
COMPRESSION · 58

Net 0DTE gamma is POSITIVE on every measurement - native rebuild +$3.749B, ETF rebuild +$0.940B, published brief +$4.33B native and +$861M ETF - but net sign and LOCAL regime are different questions and here they disagree. Measured like-for-like by cumulative-strike crossing, the native rail puts the flip at 29,460-29,470, BELOW spot, while the ETF rail puts it at 29,626-29,667, ABOVE spot. The ETF rail arbitrates: within 1.5 percent of spot it carries 240,914 contracts against the native book's 7,483, a 32 to 1 depth ratio. So the working read is that price sits just BELOW its 0DTE flip inside a shallow negative-gamma pocket, with the flip roughly 29,700-29,725 on the futures axis overhead. That does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: below the flip, impulses are not damped, so a push accelerates into the nodes above rather than being sold into. The same mechanism cuts both ways, which is why this instrument needs a tighter stop than the S&P today. Positioning is call-heavy on both rails and needs no model to see: net call open interest within 1.5 percent of spot is +70,862 on the ETF and +4,391 on the native book. Dollar-delta folded in here: net DEX +2,495 contracts-delta, rising from +1,757 this morning.

VANNA
UP · 74

The clearest structure on this family and it is strike-located, not aggregate - the net aggregate is +629, essentially zero, and carries no information. The map does, and it is unusually tidy: ALL FOUR native antimagnets sit in a tight band from 29,507 to 29,597 which CONTAINS spot, and ALL FOUR magnets sit above it from 29,686 to 29,775. Price is inside a continuous repulsion zone with the entire attraction complex overhead. The strongest antimagnet is -20,028 at 29,567.3, and spot is essentially on it. The strongest magnet is +25,652 at 29,775.3, which is the largest vanna reading on either family today. Combined with the finding that price is below its flip and therefore undamped, this says the Nasdaq should move rather than sit, and the field says the direction of least resistance is up.

CHARM
DOWN · 42

NEGATIVE and this is the day's cleanest cross-asset discriminator. Net charm opened at +13,575, flipped negative within the first polls and settled at -3,132, where it has stayed. The S&P over the same window ran positive and BUILDING, +1,890,041 to +2,433,005, a 28.7 percent increase. Negative charm means call delta bleeding away through the session - a mild drag against Nasdaq upside rather than a driver of downside. It is one of three independent reasons this report treats the S&P as the better vehicle today. No location is drawn from the charm centroid: the native and ETF centroid signs split on BOTH index pairs, which is the signature of a rail convention difference rather than a market disagreement, and CEX_PRESSURE_CENTROID_NOT_PRICE_TARGET applies regardless.

VOMMA
UP · 52

Net vomma positive at +17.4M and rising from 10.3M this morning - the book lengthens volatility as volatility rises. That matters more than usual with the volatility index at the 3rd percentile of 66 sessions, where there is no premium to cushion an event. Veta is folded in here because the schema has no VETA row: net veta +1.124e9, positive, so vega decays through the session and the book's volatility sensitivity is a morning phenomenon. Net rho +112,046 is also folded here and is very slightly larger than the S&P's despite a book an order of magnitude smaller.

ULTIMA
DOWN · 35

Net ultima NEGATIVE at -120.9M against the S&P's +49.8M - the two indices carry opposite vol-of-vol convexity today. Negative ultima means the book's vomma shortens as volatility rises, so a genuine volatility expansion out of the Jackson Hole speech would be less well absorbed here than in the S&P. A second-order reason, consistent with the rest of the cross-asset picture, to prefer the S&P for directional risk. Net vera is also opposite-signed, +42,439 against -22,265.

COLOR
DOWN · 15

Net color daily -160, flipped from +73 this morning, and negligible in magnitude either way. The contrast with the S&P is the readable part rather than the level itself: S&P color is rising strongly positive, meaning its gamma cushion deepens through the session, while the Nasdaq's is flat to slightly negative. Not a directional input on its own.

SPEED
NEUTRAL · 5

Speed at the GN0 strike 29,640 reads exactly 0 - the standing coverage caveat firing rather than a measurement, since the vendor returns non-zero speed on only about 1 percent of contracts. A SINGLE-STRIKE level property at the Gamma Neutral, never comparable to a net aggregate. Recorded as absent rather than estimated.

ZOMMA
NEUTRAL · 8

Zomma at the GN0 strike 29,640, a single-strike level property rather than an aggregate. Negligible magnitude and not read.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
-159.990

Net color daily -160, flipped from +73 this morning and negligible in magnitude either way. The readable part is the contrast with the S&P, whose color is rising strongly positive so its gamma cushion deepens through the session while the Nasdaq's stays flat. Not a directional input on its own

speed
LATENT
0.000

Speed at the GN0 strike 29,640 reads exactly 0 - the standing coverage caveat firing rather than a measurement, since the vendor returns non-zero speed on only about 1 percent of contracts. A single-strike level property, never comparable to a net aggregate. Recorded as absent rather than estimated

vomma
LATENT
17399632.990

Net vomma +17.4M, rising from 10.3M this morning - the book lengthens volatility as volatility rises, which matters more than usual with the volatility index at the 3rd percentile of 66 sessions and no premium cushioning an event

zomma
LATENT
-0.019

Zomma at the GN0 strike 29,640, a single-strike level property of negligible magnitude rather than an aggregate. Not read directionally

provenance
LATENT
NaN

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile3
Skew Pctile35
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily Move±0.85% / ±0.85%
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 29560.00 via ETF ratio levels and component confluence zones.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
DOMINANT ANCHOR
72 conf
29560.00
Contested node - NOT clean support

Contested node - NOT clean support is secondarily confirmed by QQQ ratio level near 29572.41 and 9-stock zone 29467.57-29546.05.

ETF 2COMP 2
PUT WALL
72 conf
29577.00
ETF 0DTE put wall

ETF 0DTE put wall is secondarily confirmed by QQQ ratio level near 29572.41 and 9-stock zone 29467.57-29546.05.

ETF 2COMP 2
VANNA ANTIMAGNET
18 conf
29627.30
Dominant vanna antimagnet - spot is on it

Dominant vanna antimagnet - spot is on it is secondarily confirmed by 12-stock zone 29534.11-29618.21.

COMP 2
DOMINANT ANCHOR
18 conf
29640.00
Largest ETF 0DTE node

Largest ETF 0DTE node is secondarily confirmed by 12-stock zone 29534.11-29618.21.

COMP 2

ETF Confirmation Levels

QQQ ratio-converted
QQQ
0.85
31420.68
CALL_WALL · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted CALL_WALL at 31420.68 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
20741.76
PUT_WALL · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_WALL at 20741.76 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
20741.76
PUT_SUPPORT · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_SUPPORT at 20741.76 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

QQQ
0.85
20741.76
PUT_FLOOR · DTE 0

QQQ ratio-converted PUT_FLOOR at 20741.76 (DTE 0). Secondary confirmation only.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
PUT_SUPPORT
0.41
29467.57 - 29546.05
center 29506.36 · 9 names · DTE 0

9-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29506.36. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.41
29534.11 - 29618.21
center 29573.55 · 12 names · DTE 7

12-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29573.55. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.40
29592.82 - 29660.70
center 29627.81 · 14 names · DTE 0

14-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29627.81. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.39
29542.23 - 29642.62
center 29584.69 · 14 names · DTE 5

14-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29584.69. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 46s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 2 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20NQDOMINANT ANCHOR@ 26831.00FADE_ATHELDHigh print was 26827.00, four points shy of the 26831 anchor. The ceiling held and the contract closed back below at 26774.50.
2026-04-20NQPUT FLOOR@ 26689.00BUY_ON_TESTABSORBEDNQ broke below first support to 26593.75, but the move did not extend to 26499 structural support. The contract recovered and closed 26774.50, so the downside strike occurred but was ultimately absorbed.
Total Logged2
Scored2
Hit Rate50%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.